Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.4% vs Scheifele 47.2% (+5.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 51.3%
Defensive zone
Larkin 87.8%
Neutral zone
Larkin 81.2%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 82.3%
82.3%
17.7%
Larkin
Scheifele
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Larkin
Scheifele
Last 9: Larkin 6-3 Scheifele
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
0
1
Larkin
Scheifele
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
4
2
Larkin
Scheifele
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
0
Larkin
Scheifele
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Scheifele
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (878)
46.5% (878)
+5.2%
Power Play
58.5% (246)
48.3% (174)
+10.2%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (166)
50.0% (54)
-1.8%
On power play, Larkin has a +10.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Scheifele shoots right. Larkin is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (451).
Larkin shoots left. Scheifele is 48.1% vs left-shot opponents (860).
Home / Away
Larkin
Scheifele
Home
52.4% (647)
46.2% (571)
Away
52.7% (643)
47.7% (535)
By Period
Larkin
Scheifele
P1
52.2%
51.9%
P2
53.1%
45.6%
P3
51.7%
43.9%
OT
61.3%
27.3%
Final 5 min
55.2%
47.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Scheifele
50.0%▬
51.0%
46.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 07:46 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 17:32 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 03:42 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 01:10 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 01:02 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 10:20 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 10:13 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 1 | 17:17 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |