Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Scheifele on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Larkin wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Scheifele shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 55.0% vs Scheifele 48.3% (+7.3%)
H2H factor
Scheifele leads 10-6 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Scheifele 80.5%
Defensive zone
Scheifele 65.3%
Neutral zone
Scheifele 72.8%
Result
Mark Scheifele favored at 73.3%
26.7%
73.3%
Larkin
Scheifele
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
10
(16 meetings)
6
10
Larkin
Scheifele
Last 10: Larkin 3-7 Scheifele
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
0
5
Larkin
Scheifele
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
1
Larkin
Scheifele
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Scheifele
3
4
Larkin
Scheifele
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Scheifele
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (943)
48.1% (1,045)
+7.8%
Power Play
57.4% (244)
48.6% (181)
+8.8%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (106)
44.4% (27)
+1.8%
On power play, Larkin has a +8.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Scheifele shoots right. Larkin is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (468).
Larkin shoots left. Scheifele is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (892).
Home / Away
Larkin
Scheifele
Home
56.0% (654)
52.7% (630)
Away
54.8% (639)
43.5% (623)
By Period
Larkin
Scheifele
P1
54.4%
50.3%
P2
55.9%
46.8%
P3
55.2%
47.5%
OT
64.0%
36.4%
Final 5 min
53.8%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Scheifele
50.0%▬
51.0%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2023 | 3 | 00:08 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 20, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 20, 2023 | 2 | 15:04 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 20, 2023 | 2 | 12:35 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 20, 2023 | 2 | 10:50 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 20, 2023 | 2 | 03:02 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 20, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 20, 2023 | 1 | 15:53 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 20, 2023 | 1 | 08:24 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 20, 2023 | 1 | 05:36 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 20, 2023 | 1 | 02:43 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 20, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 2 | 17:36 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 2 | 06:38 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 1 | 01:13 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |