Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Scheifele on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 40 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Scheifele 46.8% (+5.9%)
H2H factor
Scheifele leads 51-45 in 96 meetings
Offensive zone
Scheifele 65.8%
Defensive zone
Larkin 54.9%
Neutral zone
Scheifele 58.8%
Result
Mark Scheifele favored at 57.9%
42.1%
57.9%
Larkin
Scheifele
Head-to-Head Record
45
-
51
(96 meetings)
45
51
Larkin
Scheifele
Last 10: Larkin 6-4 Scheifele
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
8
32
Larkin
Scheifele
40 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
21
6
Larkin
Scheifele
27 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
16
13
Larkin
Scheifele
29 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Scheifele
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
46.3% (12,036)
+5.4%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
50.2% (2,563)
+8.3%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
41.6% (598)
+8.6%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Scheifele shoots right. Larkin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,416).
Larkin shoots left. Scheifele is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (10,821).
Home / Away
Larkin
Scheifele
Home
54.0% (6,238)
48.9% (7,644)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
44.7% (7,554)
By Period
Larkin
Scheifele
P1
52.7%
48.2%
P2
53.1%
45.6%
P3
52.1%
46.8%
OT
58.4%
42.5%
Final 5 min
53.2%
45.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Scheifele
50.0%▬
51.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 07:46 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 17:32 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 03:42 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 01:10 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 01:02 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 10:20 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 10:13 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 1 | 17:17 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 3 | 17:34 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 3 | 17:23 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 3 | 16:45 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 3 | 14:13 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 3 | 11:43 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 2 | 07:11 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:20 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 3 | 05:46 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 3 | 02:34 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |