Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +12.1% FO% edge overall. Larkin wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — McTavish shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.1% vs McTavish 43.3% (+12.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McTavish 62.2%
Defensive zone
McTavish 67.6%
Neutral zone
McTavish 67.4%
Result
Mason McTavish favored at 67.6%
32.4%
67.6%
Larkin
McTavish
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Larkin
McTavish
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: McTavish
0
2
Larkin
McTavish
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
McTavish
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (886)
42.4% (675)
+11.2%
Power Play
59.3% (317)
40.5% (42)
+18.8%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (152)
50.0% (8)
-1.3%
On power play, Larkin has a +18.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McTavish shoots left. Larkin is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (884).
Larkin shoots left. McTavish is 40.8% vs left-shot opponents (441).
Home / Away
Larkin
McTavish
Home
56.6% (700)
41.9% (372)
Away
52.1% (655)
42.8% (353)
By Period
Larkin
McTavish
P1
55.4%
47.2%
P2
54.7%
36.2%
P3
52.7%
43.6%
OT
59.1%
0.0%
Final 5 min
57.0%
44.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.4%
McTavish
46.0%▬
45.5%
42.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2022 | 1 | 08:25 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 2 | 18:38 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |