Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (63% H2H, 8 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — McTavish shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs McTavish 48.7% (+4.1%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 65.7%
Defensive zone
Larkin 71.0%
Neutral zone
Larkin 59.8%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 68.7%
68.7%
31.3%
Larkin
McTavish
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
5
(12 meetings)
7
5
Larkin
McTavish
Last 10: Larkin 7-3 McTavish
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
1
Larkin
McTavish
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
5
3
Larkin
McTavish
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McTavish
0
1
Larkin
McTavish
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
McTavish
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
48.2% (2,788)
+3.5%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
52.6% (435)
+5.9%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
34.3% (35)
+15.9%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +15.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McTavish shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,850).
Larkin shoots left. McTavish is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,155).
Home / Away
Larkin
McTavish
Home
54.0% (6,238)
49.8% (1,678)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
47.4% (1,580)
By Period
Larkin
McTavish
P1
52.7%
50.0%
P2
53.1%
47.8%
P3
52.1%
48.4%
OT
58.4%
43.5%
Final 5 min
53.2%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
McTavish
46.0%▬
45.5%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 11:31 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 1 | 09:54 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 23, 2025 | OT | 00:22 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 1 | 19:32 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 7, 2024 | 3 | 04:35 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 7, 2024 | 2 | 15:18 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 7, 2024 | 2 | 15:01 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 7, 2024 | 2 | 12:56 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 7, 2024 | 2 | 06:58 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 7, 2024 | 1 | 12:50 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 1 | 08:25 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 2 | 18:38 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |