Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Larkin wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — McTavish shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.2% vs McTavish 50.6% (+3.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McTavish 51.6%
Defensive zone
Larkin 51.0%
Neutral zone
McTavish 55.3%
Result
Mason McTavish favored at 50.3%
49.7%
50.3%
Larkin
McTavish
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Larkin
McTavish
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
McTavish
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McTavish
0
1
Larkin
McTavish
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
McTavish
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,117)
51.1% (769)
+1.5%
Power Play
60.7% (305)
50.6% (178)
+10.1%
Penalty Kill
55.9% (177)
28.6% (14)
+27.3%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +27.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McTavish shoots left. Larkin is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,032).
Larkin shoots left. McTavish is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (665).
Home / Away
Larkin
McTavish
Home
54.7% (783)
52.3% (461)
Away
54.3% (816)
49.2% (500)
By Period
Larkin
McTavish
P1
55.9%
51.5%
P2
56.1%
54.0%
P3
51.1%
47.1%
OT
66.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.8%
51.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
McTavish
46.0%▬
45.5%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2025 | OT | 00:22 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 1 | 19:32 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |