Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Larkin wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — McTavish shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.4% vs McTavish 49.0% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McTavish 64.0%
Defensive zone
Larkin 68.9%
Neutral zone
Larkin 50.9%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 59.9%
59.9%
40.1%
Larkin
McTavish
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Larkin
McTavish
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
McTavish
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McTavish
0
1
Larkin
McTavish
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
McTavish
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (878)
47.6% (616)
+4.1%
Power Play
58.5% (246)
57.8% (102)
+0.7%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (166)
33.3% (6)
+14.9%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +14.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McTavish shoots left. Larkin is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Larkin shoots left. McTavish is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (468).
Home / Away
Larkin
McTavish
Home
52.4% (647)
52.2% (389)
Away
52.7% (643)
45.1% (335)
By Period
Larkin
McTavish
P1
52.2%
50.0%
P2
53.1%
47.9%
P3
51.7%
49.0%
OT
61.3%
40.0%
Final 5 min
55.2%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
McTavish
46.0%▬
45.5%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 11:31 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 1 | 09:54 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |