Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Larkin wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — McTavish shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 55.0% vs McTavish 51.5% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 74.6%
Defensive zone
Larkin 84.3%
Neutral zone
Larkin 66.1%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 81.0%
81.0%
19.0%
Larkin
McTavish
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Larkin
McTavish
Last 6: Larkin 5-1 McTavish
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Larkin
McTavish
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
4
0
Larkin
McTavish
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
McTavish
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (943)
51.3% (725)
+4.6%
Power Play
57.4% (244)
55.8% (113)
+1.6%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (106)
28.6% (7)
+17.6%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +17.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McTavish shoots left. Larkin is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (825).
Larkin shoots left. McTavish is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (580).
Home / Away
Larkin
McTavish
Home
56.0% (654)
52.0% (454)
Away
54.8% (639)
51.4% (391)
By Period
Larkin
McTavish
P1
54.4%
51.3%
P2
55.9%
50.4%
P3
55.2%
53.3%
OT
64.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.8%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
McTavish
46.0%▬
45.5%
51.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2024 | 3 | 04:35 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 7, 2024 | 2 | 15:18 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 7, 2024 | 2 | 15:01 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 7, 2024 | 2 | 12:56 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 7, 2024 | 2 | 06:58 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 7, 2024 | 1 | 12:50 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |