Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.5% vs 54.4%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.2% vs McCarron 54.0% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 84.1%
Defensive zone
McCarron 75.2%
Neutral zone
Larkin 51.3%
Result
Michael McCarron favored at 55.5%
44.5%
55.5%
Larkin
McCarron
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Larkin
McCarron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
McCarron
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Larkin
McCarron
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
McCarron
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,117)
54.2% (756)
-1.6%
Power Play
60.7% (305)
55.6% (9)
+5.1%
Penalty Kill
55.9% (177)
55.1% (158)
+0.8%
On power play, Larkin has a +5.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McCarron shoots right. Larkin is 50.6% vs right-shot opponents (567).
Larkin shoots left. McCarron is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (674).
Home / Away
Larkin
McCarron
Home
54.7% (783)
54.6% (445)
Away
54.3% (816)
54.2% (478)
By Period
Larkin
McCarron
P1
55.9%
53.6%
P2
56.1%
55.6%
P3
51.1%
53.7%
OT
66.7%
100.0%
Final 5 min
51.8%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2024 | 2 | 04:10 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 2 | 01:58 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 1 | 03:58 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |