Dylan Larkin vs Michael McCarron
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.7% vs 52.8%). Look for McCarron on defensive-zone draws (63% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs McCarron 52.7% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
McCarron leads 10-8 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 77.7%
Defensive zone
McCarron 75.7%
Neutral zone
McCarron 53.0%
Result
Michael McCarron favored at 51.1%
48.9%
51.1%
Larkin
McCarron
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
10
(18 meetings)
8
10
Larkin
McCarron
Last 10: Larkin 5-5 McCarron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
4
3
Larkin
McCarron
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
3
5
Larkin
McCarron
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McCarron
1
2
Larkin
McCarron
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
McCarron
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
53.4% (2,901)
-1.7%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
45.3% (86)
+13.2%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
50.5% (463)
-0.3%
On power play, Larkin has a +13.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McCarron shoots right. Larkin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,416).
Larkin shoots left. McCarron is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (2,403).
Home / Away
Larkin
McCarron
Home
54.0% (6,238)
52.3% (1,696)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
53.3% (1,754)
By Period
Larkin
McCarron
P1
52.7%
53.9%
P2
53.1%
52.5%
P3
52.1%
52.0%
OT
58.4%
33.3%
Final 5 min
53.2%
50.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
52.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 00:38 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 1 | 09:44 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 05:56 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 19:03 | Offensive | Michael McCarron |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 13:35 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 12:33 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 04:34 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 2 | 04:10 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 2 | 01:58 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 1 | 03:58 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 3 | 12:41 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 3 | 12:25 | Offensive | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 3 | 10:40 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 2 | 06:34 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 1 | 07:01 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 2 | 07:36 | Offensive | Michael McCarron |
| Apr 5, 2018 | 3 | 03:09 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |