Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.6% vs 52.8%). Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.4% vs McCarron 52.5% (-0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 80.4%
Defensive zone
McCarron 72.9%
Neutral zone
Larkin 54.3%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 53.9%
53.9%
46.1%
Larkin
McCarron
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Larkin
McCarron
Last 8: Larkin 4-4 McCarron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
1
Larkin
McCarron
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
1
2
Larkin
McCarron
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Larkin
McCarron
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
McCarron
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (878)
53.1% (672)
-1.4%
Power Play
58.5% (246)
18.2% (11)
+40.3%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (166)
53.7% (205)
-5.5%
On power play, Larkin has a +40.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McCarron shoots right. Larkin is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (451).
Larkin shoots left. McCarron is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (623).
Home / Away
Larkin
McCarron
Home
52.4% (647)
52.8% (477)
Away
52.7% (643)
52.8% (411)
By Period
Larkin
McCarron
P1
52.2%
56.5%
P2
53.1%
53.2%
P3
51.7%
49.0%
OT
61.3%
0.0%
Final 5 min
55.2%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
52.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 00:38 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 1 | 09:44 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 05:56 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 19:03 | Offensive | Michael McCarron |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 13:35 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 12:33 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 04:34 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |