Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.1% vs Backlund 50.5% (+1.8%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 67.9%
Defensive zone
Backlund 56.0%
Neutral zone
Larkin 53.6%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 51.8%
51.8%
48.2%
Larkin
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
Larkin
Backlund
Last 10: Larkin 6-4 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
0
Larkin
Backlund
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
2
3
Larkin
Backlund
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Larkin
Backlund
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
51.8% (903)
51.5% (983)
+0.3%
Power Play
56.0% (225)
49.4% (87)
+6.6%
Penalty Kill
47.4% (76)
45.3% (159)
+2.1%
On power play, Larkin has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Larkin is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (721).
Larkin shoots left. Backlund is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (742).
Home / Away
Larkin
Backlund
Home
55.6% (662)
51.6% (653)
Away
48.3% (542)
49.3% (576)
By Period
Larkin
Backlund
P1
49.9%
50.0%
P2
52.7%
49.8%
P3
53.0%
51.7%
OT
68.0%
53.3%
Final 5 min
49.3%
50.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.3%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2022 | 3 | 04:43 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 12, 2022 | 3 | 03:26 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 12, 2022 | 2 | 16:51 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 12, 2022 | 2 | 13:54 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 12, 2022 | 2 | 12:21 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 12, 2022 | 2 | 02:50 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 12, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 12, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 21, 2021 | 2 | 12:15 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 21, 2021 | 2 | 03:41 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 21, 2021 | 1 | 10:41 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |