Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Larkin wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 55.0% vs Backlund 50.3% (+5.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 79.0%
Defensive zone
Backlund 62.8%
Neutral zone
Larkin 56.5%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 52.9%
52.9%
47.1%
Larkin
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Larkin
Backlund
Last 9: Larkin 5-4 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Larkin
Backlund
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
1
Larkin
Backlund
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
2
Larkin
Backlund
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (943)
51.0% (1,205)
+4.9%
Power Play
57.4% (244)
59.3% (108)
-1.9%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (106)
42.3% (234)
+3.9%
On even strength, Larkin has a +4.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Larkin is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (825).
Larkin shoots left. Backlund is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,012).
Home / Away
Larkin
Backlund
Home
56.0% (654)
51.2% (782)
Away
54.8% (639)
49.4% (765)
By Period
Larkin
Backlund
P1
54.4%
51.5%
P2
55.9%
49.8%
P3
55.2%
49.9%
OT
64.0%
37.5%
Final 5 min
53.8%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 17, 2024 | 3 | 08:58 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 3 | 03:34 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 2 | 04:53 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 1 | 16:16 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 1 | 14:56 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 22, 2023 | 3 | 09:29 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 22, 2023 | 2 | 04:29 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |