Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Larkin wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.2% vs Backlund 48.5% (+6.1%)
H2H factor
Backlund leads 9-6 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Backlund 51.2%
Defensive zone
Backlund 85.7%
Neutral zone
Backlund 59.0%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 65.3%
34.7%
65.3%
Larkin
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
9
(15 meetings)
6
9
Larkin
Backlund
Last 10: Larkin 2-8 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
2
Larkin
Backlund
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
4
Larkin
Backlund
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
2
3
Larkin
Backlund
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,117)
50.4% (1,032)
+2.2%
Power Play
60.7% (305)
52.3% (107)
+8.4%
Penalty Kill
55.9% (177)
40.6% (313)
+15.3%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +15.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Larkin is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,032).
Larkin shoots left. Backlund is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (1,014).
Home / Away
Larkin
Backlund
Home
54.7% (783)
48.7% (749)
Away
54.3% (816)
48.1% (703)
By Period
Larkin
Backlund
P1
55.9%
50.4%
P2
56.1%
50.1%
P3
51.1%
45.8%
OT
66.7%
30.8%
Final 5 min
51.8%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2025 | 3 | 00:13 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 2 | 15:03 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 2 | 14:55 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 2 | 07:20 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 1 | 19:52 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 1 | 15:11 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 1 | 12:21 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 27, 2024 | OT | 03:06 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 27, 2024 | OT | 01:42 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 2 | 12:28 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 1 | 07:08 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 1 | 06:01 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |