Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Larkin wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.4% vs Backlund 49.7% (+2.9%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 8-6 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 79.1%
Defensive zone
Backlund 64.8%
Neutral zone
Larkin 60.8%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 62.4%
62.4%
37.6%
Larkin
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
6
(14 meetings)
8
6
Larkin
Backlund
Last 10: Larkin 4-6 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
3
Larkin
Backlund
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
0
Larkin
Backlund
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
5
3
Larkin
Backlund
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (878)
50.1% (891)
+1.6%
Power Play
58.5% (246)
53.1% (64)
+5.4%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (166)
47.8% (278)
+0.4%
On power play, Larkin has a +5.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Larkin is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Larkin shoots left. Backlund is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (871).
Home / Away
Larkin
Backlund
Home
52.4% (647)
48.1% (580)
Away
52.7% (643)
51.1% (653)
By Period
Larkin
Backlund
P1
52.2%
45.1%
P2
53.1%
54.7%
P3
51.7%
49.0%
OT
61.3%
46.2%
Final 5 min
55.2%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 10, 2025 | 3 | 09:07 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 10, 2025 | 3 | 06:33 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 10, 2025 | 3 | 03:39 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 10, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 10, 2025 | 2 | 11:22 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 10, 2025 | 2 | 08:57 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 10, 2025 | 2 | 08:51 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 10, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 10, 2025 | 1 | 18:15 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 10, 2025 | 1 | 18:11 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 10, 2025 | 1 | 15:36 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 10, 2025 | 1 | 04:33 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 10, 2025 | 1 | 01:02 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 10, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |