Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Larkin wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.1% vs Backlund 50.8% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 78.7%
Defensive zone
Larkin 57.6%
Neutral zone
Larkin 56.2%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 69.3%
69.3%
30.7%
Larkin
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Larkin
Backlund
Last 9: Larkin 6-3 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
5
0
Larkin
Backlund
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
3
Larkin
Backlund
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (886)
51.9% (1,083)
+1.7%
Power Play
59.3% (317)
51.7% (120)
+7.6%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (152)
44.3% (183)
+4.4%
On power play, Larkin has a +7.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Larkin is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (884).
Larkin shoots left. Backlund is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (824).
Home / Away
Larkin
Backlund
Home
56.6% (700)
51.9% (673)
Away
52.1% (655)
49.9% (713)
By Period
Larkin
Backlund
P1
55.4%
51.4%
P2
54.7%
50.5%
P3
52.7%
51.4%
OT
59.1%
35.0%
Final 5 min
57.0%
50.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.4%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
50.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 16, 2023 | 3 | 02:14 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 16, 2023 | 2 | 18:27 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 16, 2023 | 1 | 15:38 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 16, 2023 | 1 | 15:07 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 9, 2023 | 3 | 17:06 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 9, 2023 | 2 | 18:54 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 9, 2023 | 2 | 17:50 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 9, 2023 | 2 | 14:26 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 9, 2023 | 2 | 05:15 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |