Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +11.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Larkin wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Geekie shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 55.0% vs Geekie 44.9% (+11.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 89.2%
Defensive zone
Larkin 78.5%
Neutral zone
Larkin 86.9%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 84.6%
84.6%
15.4%
Larkin
Geekie
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Larkin
Geekie
Last 8: Larkin 6-2 Geekie
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
1
Larkin
Geekie
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
1
Larkin
Geekie
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
0
Larkin
Geekie
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Geekie
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (943)
43.7% (584)
+12.2%
Power Play
57.4% (244)
47.1% (68)
+10.3%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (106)
50.0% (8)
-3.8%
On even strength, Larkin has a +12.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Geekie shoots right. Larkin is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (468).
Larkin shoots left. Geekie is 42.8% vs left-shot opponents (498).
Home / Away
Larkin
Geekie
Home
56.0% (654)
45.3% (329)
Away
54.8% (639)
42.9% (331)
By Period
Larkin
Geekie
P1
54.4%
41.2%
P2
55.9%
45.0%
P3
55.2%
46.2%
OT
64.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
53.8%
45.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Geekie
46.0%▼
47.5%
44.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2023 | 2 | 12:39 | Offensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 2 | 04:25 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 2 | 00:54 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 1 | 06:37 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 1 | 06:22 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 1 | 02:47 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 1 | 15:31 | Defensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 3 | 14:31 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |