Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +8.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Geekie on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.2% vs Geekie 47.3% (+8.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Geekie 70.4%
Defensive zone
Geekie 57.0%
Neutral zone
Geekie 63.8%
Result
Morgan Geekie favored at 64.8%
35.2%
64.8%
Larkin
Geekie
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Larkin
Geekie
Last 6: Larkin 2-4 Geekie
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Geekie
1
2
Larkin
Geekie
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Geekie
0
2
Larkin
Geekie
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Geekie
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Geekie
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,117)
45.7% (352)
+6.9%
Power Play
60.7% (305)
63.2% (19)
-2.5%
Penalty Kill
55.9% (177)
33.3% (3)
+22.6%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +22.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Geekie shoots right. Larkin is 50.6% vs right-shot opponents (567).
Larkin shoots left. Geekie is 44.6% vs left-shot opponents (307).
Home / Away
Larkin
Geekie
Home
54.7% (783)
48.5% (165)
Away
54.3% (816)
45.0% (209)
By Period
Larkin
Geekie
P1
55.9%
48.5%
P2
56.1%
45.1%
P3
51.1%
45.8%
Final 5 min
51.8%
47.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Geekie
46.0%▼
47.5%
46.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2025 | 2 | 13:42 | Defensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 1 | 06:50 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 1 | 07:17 | Defensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 03:05 | Offensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 1 | 05:40 | Offensive | Morgan Geekie |