Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.4% vs Dowd 49.1% (+3.6%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 90.4%
Defensive zone
Dowd 57.7%
Neutral zone
Larkin 74.2%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 70.3%
70.3%
29.7%
Larkin
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
4
(12 meetings)
8
4
Larkin
Dowd
Last 10: Larkin 7-3 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
5
0
Larkin
Dowd
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
3
Larkin
Dowd
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
1
Larkin
Dowd
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (878)
51.7% (644)
+0.0%
Power Play
58.5% (246)
0.0% (2)
+58.5%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (166)
41.6% (221)
+6.6%
On power play, Larkin has a +58.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Larkin is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (451).
Larkin shoots left. Dowd is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Home / Away
Larkin
Dowd
Home
52.4% (647)
48.6% (451)
Away
52.7% (643)
49.5% (416)
By Period
Larkin
Dowd
P1
52.2%
49.1%
P2
53.1%
47.3%
P3
51.7%
51.4%
OT
61.3%
30.0%
Final 5 min
55.2%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 14:44 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 11:52 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 09:52 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 17:58 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 02:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 21, 2025 | OT | 00:40 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 21, 2025 | OT | 00:35 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 07:22 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 05:42 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 09:41 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 13:08 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 16:15 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |