Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (89% H2H, 28 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Dowd 50.7% (+2.0%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 36-26 in 62 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 88.8%
Defensive zone
Larkin 63.7%
Neutral zone
Larkin 58.5%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 73.7%
73.7%
26.3%
Larkin
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
36
-
26
(62 meetings)
36
26
Larkin
Dowd
Last 10: Larkin 7-3 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
25
3
Larkin
Dowd
28 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
3
16
Larkin
Dowd
19 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
8
7
Larkin
Dowd
15 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
52.4% (6,009)
-0.7%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
56.1% (164)
+2.4%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
44.1% (1,635)
+6.1%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +6.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Larkin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,416).
Larkin shoots left. Dowd is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,134).
Home / Away
Larkin
Dowd
Home
54.0% (6,238)
51.9% (3,897)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
49.5% (3,912)
By Period
Larkin
Dowd
P1
52.7%
51.7%
P2
53.1%
50.4%
P3
52.1%
50.3%
OT
58.4%
45.9%
Final 5 min
53.2%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 14:44 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 11:52 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 09:52 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 17:58 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 02:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 21, 2025 | OT | 00:40 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 21, 2025 | OT | 00:35 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 07:22 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 05:42 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 09:41 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 13:08 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 16:15 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 7, 2025 | 3 | 07:53 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 7, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 7, 2025 | 2 | 19:18 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 7, 2025 | 1 | 12:26 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 7, 2025 | 1 | 06:24 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 2 | 10:28 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 1 | 09:28 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |