Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.2% vs Dowd 49.9% (+4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 91.5%
Defensive zone
Dowd 84.5%
Neutral zone
Larkin 52.1%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 57.4%
57.4%
42.6%
Larkin
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Larkin
Dowd
Last 9: Larkin 5-4 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
4
0
Larkin
Dowd
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
3
Larkin
Dowd
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Larkin
Dowd
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,117)
52.2% (835)
+0.4%
Power Play
60.7% (305)
60.0% (10)
+0.7%
Penalty Kill
55.9% (177)
44.0% (350)
+11.9%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +11.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Larkin is 50.6% vs right-shot opponents (567).
Larkin shoots left. Dowd is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (833).
Home / Away
Larkin
Dowd
Home
54.7% (783)
51.5% (619)
Away
54.3% (816)
48.1% (576)
By Period
Larkin
Dowd
P1
55.9%
51.7%
P2
56.1%
51.6%
P3
51.1%
47.0%
OT
66.7%
22.2%
Final 5 min
51.8%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2025 | 3 | 07:53 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 7, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 7, 2025 | 2 | 19:18 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 7, 2025 | 1 | 12:26 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 7, 2025 | 1 | 06:24 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 2 | 10:28 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 1 | 09:28 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 1 | 05:33 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |