Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.1% vs Dowd 53.3% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 85.4%
Defensive zone
Dowd 82.5%
Neutral zone
Dowd 54.1%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 52.1%
52.1%
47.9%
Larkin
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
3
(10 meetings)
7
3
Larkin
Dowd
Last 10: Larkin 7-3 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
0
Larkin
Dowd
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Larkin
Dowd
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
2
Larkin
Dowd
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
51.8% (903)
55.4% (771)
-3.6%
Power Play
56.0% (225)
57.1% (7)
-1.1%
Penalty Kill
47.4% (76)
45.5% (165)
+1.9%
On even strength, Dowd has a +3.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Larkin is 52.0% vs right-shot opponents (483).
Larkin shoots left. Dowd is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (621).
Home / Away
Larkin
Dowd
Home
55.6% (662)
58.2% (462)
Away
48.3% (542)
49.3% (481)
By Period
Larkin
Dowd
P1
49.9%
55.6%
P2
52.7%
50.5%
P3
53.0%
53.9%
OT
68.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
49.3%
53.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.3%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2021 | 3 | 19:54 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 31, 2021 | 2 | 11:57 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 31, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 31, 2021 | 1 | 12:09 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 27, 2021 | 3 | 19:59 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 27, 2021 | 3 | 09:06 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 27, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 27, 2021 | 2 | 13:39 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 27, 2021 | 1 | 19:05 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 27, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |