Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.1% vs Dowd 50.7% (+3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 86.0%
Defensive zone
Dowd 87.6%
Neutral zone
Dowd 59.4%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 53.7%
46.3%
53.7%
Larkin
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Larkin
Dowd
Last 6: Larkin 3-3 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
0
Larkin
Dowd
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
2
Larkin
Dowd
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Larkin
Dowd
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (886)
55.2% (625)
-1.6%
Power Play
59.3% (317)
57.1% (7)
+2.2%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (152)
38.2% (220)
+10.5%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +10.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Larkin is 50.7% vs right-shot opponents (471).
Larkin shoots left. Dowd is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (557).
Home / Away
Larkin
Dowd
Home
56.6% (700)
53.7% (445)
Away
52.1% (655)
47.7% (407)
By Period
Larkin
Dowd
P1
55.4%
48.8%
P2
54.7%
49.3%
P3
52.7%
54.0%
OT
59.1%
44.4%
Final 5 min
57.0%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.4%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2023 | 1 | 09:56 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 21, 2023 | 1 | 06:52 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 21, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 3 | 06:17 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 2 | 13:23 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 1 | 00:24 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |