Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings). Larkin wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 55.0% vs Dowd 48.3% (+7.3%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 9-7 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 92.0%
Defensive zone
Dowd 91.0%
Neutral zone
Larkin 53.9%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 56.1%
56.1%
43.9%
Larkin
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
7
(16 meetings)
9
7
Larkin
Dowd
Last 10: Larkin 4-6 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
7
1
Larkin
Dowd
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
5
Larkin
Dowd
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Larkin
Dowd
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (943)
49.2% (778)
+6.7%
Power Play
57.4% (244)
58.3% (12)
-0.9%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (106)
44.0% (234)
+2.2%
On even strength, Larkin has a +6.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Larkin is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (468).
Larkin shoots left. Dowd is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (698).
Home / Away
Larkin
Dowd
Home
56.0% (654)
46.3% (492)
Away
54.8% (639)
49.8% (532)
By Period
Larkin
Dowd
P1
54.4%
49.1%
P2
55.9%
48.2%
P3
55.2%
46.9%
OT
64.0%
71.4%
Final 5 min
53.8%
45.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2024 | 3 | 19:44 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 3 | 17:54 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 3 | 15:48 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 3 | 06:33 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 3 | 01:05 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 2 | 00:15 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 1 | 10:31 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 1 | 00:20 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 3 | 14:40 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 3 | 10:29 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 3 | 07:44 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 3 | 04:49 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 18:23 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 18:21 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 10:37 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 1 | 02:41 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |