Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Larkin wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Foligno shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.2% vs Foligno 48.6% (+6.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 53.8%
Defensive zone
Foligno 66.9%
Neutral zone
Foligno 52.2%
Result
Nick Foligno favored at 53.1%
46.9%
53.1%
Larkin
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Larkin
Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Larkin
Foligno
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
0
1
Larkin
Foligno
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,117)
48.7% (495)
+3.9%
Power Play
60.7% (305)
56.9% (65)
+3.8%
Penalty Kill
55.9% (177)
43.8% (144)
+12.1%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +12.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. Larkin is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,032).
Larkin shoots left. Foligno is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (506).
Home / Away
Larkin
Foligno
Home
54.7% (783)
49.6% (359)
Away
54.3% (816)
47.2% (345)
By Period
Larkin
Foligno
P1
55.9%
46.7%
P2
56.1%
52.7%
P3
51.1%
46.7%
OT
66.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.8%
55.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2025 | 3 | 16:10 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 3 | 08:05 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 1 | 16:05 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |