Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Larkin wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Foligno shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.4% vs Foligno 49.8% (+2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 63.9%
Defensive zone
Larkin 52.8%
Neutral zone
Larkin 59.6%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 59.1%
59.1%
40.9%
Larkin
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Larkin
Foligno
Last 5: Larkin 3-2 Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Foligno
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
0
1
Larkin
Foligno
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
1
Larkin
Foligno
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (878)
49.0% (261)
+2.7%
Power Play
58.5% (246)
57.1% (42)
+1.4%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (166)
47.1% (51)
+1.1%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. Larkin is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Larkin shoots left. Foligno is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (192).
Home / Away
Larkin
Foligno
Home
52.4% (647)
48.9% (178)
Away
52.7% (643)
50.6% (176)
By Period
Larkin
Foligno
P1
52.2%
40.4%
P2
53.1%
55.8%
P3
51.7%
51.2%
OT
61.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
55.2%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 2 | 18:31 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 2 | 00:38 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 19:11 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |