Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.4% vs 53.7%). Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Larkin wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.1% vs Paul 53.4% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 63.3%
Defensive zone
Paul 53.2%
Neutral zone
Paul 53.0%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 57.3%
57.3%
42.7%
Larkin
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
Larkin
Paul
Last 10: Larkin 6-4 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
6
1
Larkin
Paul
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
3
Larkin
Paul
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Paul
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (886)
53.8% (753)
-0.2%
Power Play
59.3% (317)
58.9% (90)
+0.4%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (152)
47.4% (78)
+1.3%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Larkin is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (884).
Larkin shoots left. Paul is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (579).
Home / Away
Larkin
Paul
Home
56.6% (700)
54.2% (450)
Away
52.1% (655)
53.3% (471)
By Period
Larkin
Paul
P1
55.4%
58.2%
P2
54.7%
50.6%
P3
52.7%
52.9%
OT
59.1%
50.0%
Final 5 min
57.0%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
50.0%▬
50.0%
54.4%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.5%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2023 | 2 | 16:40 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 2 | 13:09 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 1 | 16:57 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 1 | 13:51 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 1 | 13:46 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 3 | 09:39 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 2 | 19:21 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 2 | 00:32 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 1 | 06:42 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 6, 2022 | 3 | 17:34 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 6, 2022 | 2 | 08:59 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |