Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Larkin wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.2% vs Paul 50.0% (+4.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 68.5%
Defensive zone
Larkin 54.2%
Neutral zone
Larkin 55.8%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 58.8%
58.8%
41.2%
Larkin
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Larkin
Paul
Last 7: Larkin 4-3 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
0
Larkin
Paul
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
2
Larkin
Paul
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Larkin
Paul
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,117)
48.8% (666)
+3.8%
Power Play
60.7% (305)
53.8% (65)
+6.9%
Penalty Kill
55.9% (177)
60.0% (55)
-4.1%
On power play, Larkin has a +6.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Larkin is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,032).
Larkin shoots left. Paul is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (543).
Home / Away
Larkin
Paul
Home
54.7% (783)
49.7% (348)
Away
54.3% (816)
50.2% (438)
By Period
Larkin
Paul
P1
55.9%
51.0%
P2
56.1%
47.4%
P3
51.1%
51.5%
OT
66.7%
0.0%
Final 5 min
51.8%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 08:41 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 01:22 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 2 | 04:43 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 2 | 14:44 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 13:45 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 05:03 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |