Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.7% vs 52.2%). Look for Paul on neutral-zone draws (73% H2H, 11 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Paul 52.2% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 25-21 in 46 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 61.6%
Defensive zone
Paul 60.3%
Neutral zone
Paul 52.5%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 50.1%
50.1%
49.9%
Larkin
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
21
-
25
(46 meetings)
21
25
Larkin
Paul
Last 10: Larkin 4-6 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
9
9
Larkin
Paul
18 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
9
8
Larkin
Paul
17 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
3
8
Larkin
Paul
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
52.5% (3,796)
-0.8%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
56.5% (480)
+2.0%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
46.7% (574)
+3.5%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +3.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,850).
Larkin shoots left. Paul is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,067).
Home / Away
Larkin
Paul
Home
54.0% (6,238)
52.7% (2,412)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
51.7% (2,439)
By Period
Larkin
Paul
P1
52.7%
53.9%
P2
53.1%
51.0%
P3
52.1%
52.0%
OT
58.4%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.2%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 19:40 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 08:41 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 01:22 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 2 | 04:43 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 2 | 14:44 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 13:45 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 05:03 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 3 | 18:50 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 3 | 04:11 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 3 | 19:48 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 3 | 13:58 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 3 | 07:46 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 3 | 04:58 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 2 | 07:39 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 2 | 04:20 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 3 | 13:35 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 2 | 10:53 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 1 | 16:54 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 1 | 08:03 | Neutral | Nick Paul |