Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Larkin wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.4% vs Paul 53.3% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 51.3%
Defensive zone
Larkin 52.3%
Neutral zone
Larkin 59.2%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 51.3%
48.7%
51.3%
Larkin
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Larkin
Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
Larkin
Paul
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (878)
53.2% (327)
-1.5%
Power Play
58.5% (246)
61.4% (57)
-2.9%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (166)
50.0% (32)
-1.8%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Larkin is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Larkin shoots left. Paul is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (299).
Home / Away
Larkin
Paul
Home
52.4% (647)
54.6% (183)
Away
52.7% (643)
53.6% (233)
By Period
Larkin
Paul
P1
52.2%
56.3%
P2
53.1%
54.8%
P3
51.7%
52.4%
OT
61.3%
44.4%
Final 5 min
55.2%
59.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 19:40 | Offensive | Nick Paul |