Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.3% vs 53.0%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.1% vs Sturm 52.5% (-0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 77.6%
Defensive zone
Sturm 72.1%
Neutral zone
Sturm 51.4%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 52.7%
52.7%
47.3%
Larkin
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Larkin
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Sturm
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Larkin
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
51.8% (903)
54.0% (480)
-2.2%
Power Play
56.0% (225)
28.6% (7)
+27.4%
Penalty Kill
47.4% (76)
50.0% (102)
-2.6%
On power play, Larkin has a +27.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Larkin is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (721).
Larkin shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (390).
Home / Away
Larkin
Sturm
Home
55.6% (662)
54.0% (287)
Away
48.3% (542)
52.0% (302)
By Period
Larkin
Sturm
P1
49.9%
53.5%
P2
52.7%
51.0%
P3
53.0%
55.1%
OT
68.0%
20.0%
Final 5 min
49.3%
52.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.3%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
53.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2022 | 3 | 00:36 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 14, 2022 | 1 | 16:43 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |