Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Larkin wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.2% vs Sturm 57.1% (-4.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 79.3%
Defensive zone
Sturm 51.1%
Neutral zone
Larkin 51.6%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 57.9%
57.9%
42.1%
Larkin
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Larkin
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Sturm
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Larkin
Sturm
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
2
Larkin
Sturm
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,117)
62.1% (356)
-9.5%
Power Play
60.7% (305)
75.0% (4)
-14.3%
Penalty Kill
55.9% (177)
38.7% (62)
+17.2%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +17.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Larkin is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,032).
Larkin shoots left. Sturm is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (279).
Home / Away
Larkin
Sturm
Home
54.7% (783)
61.8% (191)
Away
54.3% (816)
56.3% (231)
By Period
Larkin
Sturm
P1
55.9%
58.0%
P2
56.1%
57.9%
P3
51.1%
60.6%
Final 5 min
51.8%
58.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
58.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 07:43 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |