Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Larkin wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.1% vs Sturm 55.2% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 73.7%
Defensive zone
Sturm 78.1%
Neutral zone
Sturm 53.9%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 50.5%
50.5%
49.5%
Larkin
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Larkin
Sturm
Last 7: Larkin 5-2 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
0
Larkin
Sturm
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Larkin
Sturm
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
1
Larkin
Sturm
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (886)
56.1% (716)
-2.5%
Power Play
59.3% (317)
67.7% (31)
-8.4%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (152)
51.1% (133)
-2.4%
On power play, Sturm has a +8.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Larkin is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (884).
Larkin shoots left. Sturm is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (592).
Home / Away
Larkin
Sturm
Home
56.6% (700)
55.6% (412)
Away
52.1% (655)
56.0% (468)
By Period
Larkin
Sturm
P1
55.4%
59.6%
P2
54.7%
52.0%
P3
52.7%
55.5%
OT
59.1%
60.0%
Final 5 min
57.0%
56.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.4%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2023 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 3 | 00:59 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 2 | 19:53 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 2 | 11:53 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 1 | 16:25 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 1 | 06:18 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 1 | 06:56 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |