Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Larkin wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.4% vs Sturm 53.6% (-2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 69.1%
Defensive zone
Sturm 71.2%
Neutral zone
Larkin 53.2%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 69.1%
69.1%
30.9%
Larkin
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Larkin
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (878)
54.6% (271)
-2.9%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (166)
54.4% (90)
-6.2%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +6.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Larkin is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Larkin shoots left. Sturm is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (243).
Home / Away
Larkin
Sturm
Home
52.4% (647)
53.0% (168)
Away
52.7% (643)
56.0% (193)
By Period
Larkin
Sturm
P1
52.2%
58.2%
P2
53.1%
53.2%
P3
51.7%
52.3%
OT
61.3%
100.0%
Final 5 min
55.2%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 06:33 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |