Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Larkin wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 55.0% vs Sturm 59.0% (-4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sturm 53.5%
Defensive zone
Sturm 89.6%
Neutral zone
Sturm 65.9%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 80.6%
19.4%
80.6%
Larkin
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
0
(4 meetings)
4
0
Larkin
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Sturm
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
0
Larkin
Sturm
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (943)
60.6% (708)
-4.7%
Power Play
57.4% (244)
61.1% (18)
-3.7%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (106)
56.4% (101)
-10.2%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +10.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Larkin is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (825).
Larkin shoots left. Sturm is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (563).
Home / Away
Larkin
Sturm
Home
56.0% (654)
61.6% (451)
Away
54.8% (639)
58.2% (376)
By Period
Larkin
Sturm
P1
54.4%
55.9%
P2
55.9%
58.9%
P3
55.2%
64.6%
OT
64.0%
70.6%
Final 5 min
53.8%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
60.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 11:46 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 07:18 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 04:33 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 2 | 04:56 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |