Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +24.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Larkin wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Buchnevich shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.1% vs Buchnevich 36.3% (+24.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 95.0%
Defensive zone
Larkin 93.7%
Neutral zone
Larkin 94.6%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 94.6%
94.6%
5.4%
Larkin
Buchnevich
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Larkin
Buchnevich
Last 9: Larkin 7-2 Buchnevich
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
4
0
Larkin
Buchnevich
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Buchnevich
0
2
Larkin
Buchnevich
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
0
Larkin
Buchnevich
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Buchnevich
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (886)
28.6% (192)
+25.0%
Power Play
59.3% (317)
55.6% (9)
+3.7%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (152)
30.8% (13)
+17.9%
On even strength, Larkin has a +25.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Buchnevich shoots left. Larkin is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (884).
Larkin shoots left. Buchnevich is 28.7% vs left-shot opponents (136).
Home / Away
Larkin
Buchnevich
Home
56.6% (700)
30.4% (112)
Away
52.1% (655)
29.4% (102)
By Period
Larkin
Buchnevich
P1
55.4%
27.7%
P2
54.7%
33.3%
P3
52.7%
27.7%
Final 5 min
57.0%
33.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.4%
Buchnevich
36.0%▼
38.5%
29.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2023 | 3 | 19:44 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 3 | 17:29 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 2 | 08:55 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 2 | 08:37 | Defensive | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 2 | 03:31 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 1 | 00:20 | Defensive | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 2 | 00:41 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 1 | 16:06 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |