Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +9.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Larkin wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Krebs shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.1% vs Krebs 45.9% (+9.3%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 92.2%
Defensive zone
Larkin 71.7%
Neutral zone
Larkin 76.7%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 84.0%
84.0%
16.0%
Larkin
Krebs
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
3
(10 meetings)
7
3
Larkin
Krebs
Last 10: Larkin 7-3 Krebs
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
4
1
Larkin
Krebs
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Krebs
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Larkin
Krebs
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Krebs
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (886)
45.5% (501)
+8.1%
Power Play
59.3% (317)
50.0% (20)
+9.3%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (152)
37.1% (35)
+11.6%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +11.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Krebs shoots left. Larkin is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (884).
Larkin shoots left. Krebs is 41.3% vs left-shot opponents (351).
Home / Away
Larkin
Krebs
Home
56.6% (700)
43.9% (285)
Away
52.1% (655)
46.5% (271)
By Period
Larkin
Krebs
P1
55.4%
45.4%
P2
54.7%
50.9%
P3
52.7%
39.7%
OT
59.1%
100.0%
Final 5 min
57.0%
47.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.4%
Krebs
48.0%▲
45.0%
45.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2023 | 3 | 19:50 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 3 | 10:01 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 3 | 03:20 | Neutral | Peyton Krebs |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 2 | 07:16 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 1 | 08:29 | Offensive | Peyton Krebs |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 2 | 14:02 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 2 | 10:49 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 31, 2022 | 3 | 18:47 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 31, 2022 | 2 | 11:51 | Neutral | Peyton Krebs |
| Oct 31, 2022 | 1 | 11:23 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |