Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +9.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Larkin wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Krebs shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 55.0% vs Krebs 46.8% (+9.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 89.5%
Defensive zone
Larkin 76.1%
Neutral zone
Larkin 81.3%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 87.8%
87.8%
12.2%
Larkin
Krebs
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Larkin
Krebs
Last 8: Larkin 6-2 Krebs
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
5
2
Larkin
Krebs
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Krebs
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Krebs
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (943)
47.2% (542)
+8.7%
Power Play
57.4% (244)
54.2% (24)
+3.2%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (106)
31.3% (48)
+14.9%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +14.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Krebs shoots left. Larkin is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (825).
Larkin shoots left. Krebs is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (358).
Home / Away
Larkin
Krebs
Home
56.0% (654)
45.5% (312)
Away
54.8% (639)
47.0% (302)
By Period
Larkin
Krebs
P1
54.4%
46.6%
P2
55.9%
42.7%
P3
55.2%
48.6%
OT
64.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
53.8%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
50.0%▬
50.0%
55.4%
Krebs
36.0%▼
44.0%
46.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2024 | 3 | 14:48 | Offensive | Peyton Krebs |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 3 | 01:28 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 2 | 03:47 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 1 | 13:48 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 1 | 09:31 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 3 | 00:41 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 2 | 14:17 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 1 | 14:04 | Offensive | Peyton Krebs |