Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Larkin wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Krebs shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.2% vs Krebs 49.2% (+5.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 86.1%
Defensive zone
Larkin 58.8%
Neutral zone
Larkin 69.0%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 75.0%
75.0%
25.0%
Larkin
Krebs
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Larkin
Krebs
Last 8: Larkin 5-3 Krebs
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
4
0
Larkin
Krebs
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Larkin
Krebs
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Krebs
0
2
Larkin
Krebs
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Krebs
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,117)
49.5% (560)
+3.1%
Power Play
60.7% (305)
52.6% (38)
+8.1%
Penalty Kill
55.9% (177)
43.3% (67)
+12.6%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +12.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Krebs shoots left. Larkin is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,032).
Larkin shoots left. Krebs is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (433).
Home / Away
Larkin
Krebs
Home
54.7% (783)
49.4% (314)
Away
54.3% (816)
48.7% (351)
By Period
Larkin
Krebs
P1
55.9%
47.0%
P2
56.1%
50.5%
P3
51.1%
50.0%
OT
66.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.8%
48.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Krebs
48.0%▲
45.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2025 | 2 | 10:03 | Defensive | Peyton Krebs |
| Dec 9, 2024 | 1 | 19:02 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 9, 2024 | 1 | 10:25 | Neutral | Peyton Krebs |
| Dec 9, 2024 | 1 | 07:59 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 3 | 11:42 | Neutral | Peyton Krebs |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 3 | 16:29 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 3 | 09:01 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 1 | 19:36 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |