Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Danault on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Larkin wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Danault shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 55.0% vs Danault 51.7% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 59.7%
Defensive zone
Danault 66.6%
Neutral zone
Danault 61.9%
Result
Phillip Danault favored at 55.8%
44.2%
55.8%
Larkin
Danault
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Larkin
Danault
Last 9: Larkin 4-5 Danault
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Danault
1
2
Larkin
Danault
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
0
Larkin
Danault
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Danault
1
3
Larkin
Danault
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Danault
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (943)
52.6% (895)
+3.3%
Power Play
57.4% (244)
55.7% (97)
+1.7%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (106)
45.5% (165)
+0.7%
On even strength, Larkin has a +3.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Danault shoots left. Larkin is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (825).
Larkin shoots left. Danault is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (787).
Home / Away
Larkin
Danault
Home
56.0% (654)
54.0% (581)
Away
54.8% (639)
49.7% (576)
By Period
Larkin
Danault
P1
54.4%
53.7%
P2
55.9%
55.3%
P3
55.2%
46.5%
OT
64.0%
46.2%
Final 5 min
53.8%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Danault
54.0%▼
57.5%
51.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 05:38 | Neutral | Phillip Danault |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 13:30 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 08:30 | Neutral | Phillip Danault |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 2 | 19:09 | Offensive | Phillip Danault |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 2 | 11:18 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 1 | 13:34 | Offensive | Phillip Danault |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 1 | 13:30 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Phillip Danault |