Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +10.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Byfield on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Larkin wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Byfield shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.2% vs Byfield 44.6% (+10.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 52.7%
Defensive zone
Byfield 52.1%
Neutral zone
Byfield 52.2%
Result
Quinton Byfield favored at 51.2%
48.8%
51.2%
Larkin
Byfield
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Larkin
Byfield
Last 5: Larkin 2-3 Byfield
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Byfield
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Byfield
1
2
Larkin
Byfield
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Byfield
0
1
Larkin
Byfield
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Byfield
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,117)
44.5% (853)
+8.1%
Power Play
60.7% (305)
42.9% (21)
+17.8%
Penalty Kill
55.9% (177)
38.2% (68)
+17.7%
On power play, Larkin has a +17.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Byfield shoots left. Larkin is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,032).
Larkin shoots left. Byfield is 43.7% vs left-shot opponents (629).
Home / Away
Larkin
Byfield
Home
54.7% (783)
43.8% (502)
Away
54.3% (816)
44.3% (440)
By Period
Larkin
Byfield
P1
55.9%
44.2%
P2
56.1%
43.0%
P3
51.1%
45.0%
OT
66.7%
46.2%
Final 5 min
51.8%
40.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Byfield
66.0%▲
56.0%
44.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2025 | 1 | 17:05 | Neutral | Quinton Byfield |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 1 | 17:03 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 1 | 07:01 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 1 | 03:29 | Defensive | Quinton Byfield |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 2 | 01:29 | Defensive | Quinton Byfield |