Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Larkin wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Byfield shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.4% vs Byfield 45.4% (+7.6%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 87.6%
Defensive zone
Larkin 64.9%
Neutral zone
Larkin 81.9%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 81.4%
81.4%
18.6%
Larkin
Byfield
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
3
(11 meetings)
8
3
Larkin
Byfield
Last 10: Larkin 7-3 Byfield
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
4
1
Larkin
Byfield
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Larkin
Byfield
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
1
Larkin
Byfield
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Byfield
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (878)
46.5% (759)
+5.2%
Power Play
58.5% (246)
50.0% (58)
+8.5%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (166)
35.1% (148)
+13.1%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +13.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Byfield shoots left. Larkin is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Larkin shoots left. Byfield is 43.6% vs left-shot opponents (637).
Home / Away
Larkin
Byfield
Home
52.4% (647)
46.2% (442)
Away
52.7% (643)
44.0% (523)
By Period
Larkin
Byfield
P1
52.2%
44.1%
P2
53.1%
43.5%
P3
51.7%
47.7%
OT
61.3%
39.3%
Final 5 min
55.2%
42.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Byfield
66.0%▲
56.0%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3 | 15:08 | Defensive | Quinton Byfield |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3 | 06:46 | Neutral | Quinton Byfield |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 18:28 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 17:38 | Offensive | Quinton Byfield |
| Oct 30, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 14:45 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 11:39 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 14:09 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 12:39 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 10:48 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 09:16 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |