Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.4% vs Hartman 45.5% (+7.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 61.5%
Defensive zone
Larkin 70.0%
Neutral zone
Larkin 68.4%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 67.2%
67.2%
32.8%
Larkin
Hartman
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Larkin
Hartman
Last 9: Larkin 5-4 Hartman
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
1
2
Larkin
Hartman
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
4
2
Larkin
Hartman
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Hartman
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (878)
44.8% (830)
+6.9%
Power Play
58.5% (246)
47.8% (92)
+10.7%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (166)
37.5% (16)
+10.7%
On power play, Larkin has a +10.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hartman shoots right. Larkin is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (451).
Larkin shoots left. Hartman is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (654).
Home / Away
Larkin
Hartman
Home
52.4% (647)
45.0% (515)
Away
52.7% (643)
44.9% (423)
By Period
Larkin
Hartman
P1
52.2%
46.5%
P2
53.1%
39.9%
P3
51.7%
48.6%
OT
61.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
55.2%
43.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Hartman
54.0%▲
52.0%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 15:24 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 14:24 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 10:52 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 09:46 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 10:39 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 09:57 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 01:41 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 19:07 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 16:26 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |