Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +8.4% FO% edge overall. Larkin wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Hartman shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 55.0% vs Hartman 47.3% (+8.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hartman 57.9%
Defensive zone
Hartman 63.3%
Neutral zone
Hartman 60.0%
Result
Ryan Hartman favored at 61.5%
38.5%
61.5%
Larkin
Hartman
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Larkin
Hartman
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Hartman
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
0
2
Larkin
Hartman
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Hartman
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (943)
47.1% (649)
+8.8%
Power Play
57.4% (244)
47.1% (68)
+10.3%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (106)
45.2% (73)
+1.0%
On power play, Larkin has a +10.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hartman shoots right. Larkin is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (468).
Larkin shoots left. Hartman is 47.9% vs left-shot opponents (608).
Home / Away
Larkin
Hartman
Home
56.0% (654)
46.5% (361)
Away
54.8% (639)
47.3% (429)
By Period
Larkin
Hartman
P1
54.4%
45.1%
P2
55.9%
44.4%
P3
55.2%
50.9%
OT
64.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.8%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Hartman
54.0%▲
52.0%
47.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2023 | 3 | 12:42 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 3 | 03:01 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 26, 2023 | 2 | 08:46 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |