Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Hartman on defensive-zone draws (57% H2H, 14 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Hartman 45.3% (+7.5%)
H2H factor
Hartman leads 19-14 in 33 meetings
Offensive zone
Hartman 76.8%
Defensive zone
Hartman 74.2%
Neutral zone
Hartman 72.8%
Result
Ryan Hartman favored at 75.0%
25.0%
75.0%
Larkin
Hartman
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
19
(33 meetings)
14
19
Larkin
Hartman
Last 10: Larkin 5-5 Hartman
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
6
7
Larkin
Hartman
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
6
8
Larkin
Hartman
14 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hartman
2
4
Larkin
Hartman
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Hartman
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
45.2% (4,235)
+6.5%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
47.4% (443)
+11.1%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
42.4% (262)
+7.8%
On power play, Larkin has a +11.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hartman shoots right. Larkin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,416).
Larkin shoots left. Hartman is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (3,559).
Home / Away
Larkin
Hartman
Home
54.0% (6,238)
46.7% (2,589)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
43.6% (2,351)
By Period
Larkin
Hartman
P1
52.7%
46.0%
P2
53.1%
42.9%
P3
52.1%
46.8%
OT
58.4%
53.8%
Final 5 min
53.2%
46.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Hartman
54.0%▲
52.0%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 15:24 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 14:24 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 10:52 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 09:46 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 10:39 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 09:57 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 01:41 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 19:07 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 16:26 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 3 | 12:42 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 3 | 03:01 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 26, 2023 | 2 | 08:46 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 2 | 05:03 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 10, 2022 | OT | 02:00 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 10, 2022 | 3 | 11:06 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 10, 2022 | 3 | 10:42 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 10, 2022 | 3 | 03:18 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 10, 2022 | 3 | 03:04 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 10, 2022 | 2 | 12:43 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 10, 2022 | 2 | 00:50 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |