Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.4% vs Carrick 53.7% (-1.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 59.7%
Defensive zone
Carrick 69.1%
Neutral zone
Carrick 53.0%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 50.1%
50.1%
49.9%
Larkin
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Larkin
Carrick
Last 6: Larkin 4-2 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
4
0
Larkin
Carrick
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
2
Larkin
Carrick
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (878)
54.9% (428)
-3.2%
Power Play
58.5% (246)
66.7% (3)
-8.2%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (166)
50.0% (50)
-1.8%
On power play, Carrick has a +8.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Larkin is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (451).
Larkin shoots left. Carrick is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (341).
Home / Away
Larkin
Carrick
Home
52.4% (647)
58.2% (225)
Away
52.7% (643)
51.2% (256)
By Period
Larkin
Carrick
P1
52.2%
55.2%
P2
53.1%
52.8%
P3
51.7%
55.4%
Final 5 min
55.2%
55.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Carrick
54.0%▼
56.5%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 06:06 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 3 | 08:39 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 2 | 11:05 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 2 | 09:41 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 2 | 09:36 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 1 | 15:46 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |