Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.5% vs 54.2%). Look for Carrick on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.2% vs Carrick 53.7% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 69.8%
Defensive zone
Carrick 75.9%
Neutral zone
Carrick 58.8%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 71.6%
28.4%
71.6%
Larkin
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
4
(4 meetings)
0
4
Larkin
Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
3
Larkin
Carrick
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
1
Larkin
Carrick
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,117)
53.8% (654)
-1.2%
Power Play
60.7% (305)
0.0% (2)
+60.7%
Penalty Kill
55.9% (177)
63.9% (36)
-8.0%
On power play, Larkin has a +60.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Larkin is 50.6% vs right-shot opponents (567).
Larkin shoots left. Carrick is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (503).
Home / Away
Larkin
Carrick
Home
54.7% (783)
50.0% (328)
Away
54.3% (816)
58.0% (364)
By Period
Larkin
Carrick
P1
55.9%
56.7%
P2
56.1%
51.1%
P3
51.1%
54.8%
Final 5 min
51.8%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | 3 | 06:06 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 2 | 17:40 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 3 | 19:34 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 14, 2024 | 3 | 05:39 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |