Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Larkin wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 55.0% vs Carrick 53.0% (+2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 74.6%
Defensive zone
Carrick 74.6%
Neutral zone
Larkin 51.4%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 50.2%
50.2%
49.8%
Larkin
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Larkin
Carrick
Last 7: Larkin 4-3 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
0
Larkin
Carrick
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
3
Larkin
Carrick
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Carrick
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (943)
53.9% (521)
+2.0%
Power Play
57.4% (244)
57.1% (35)
+0.3%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (106)
51.5% (229)
-5.3%
On penalty kill, Carrick has a +5.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Larkin is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (468).
Larkin shoots left. Carrick is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (562).
Home / Away
Larkin
Carrick
Home
56.0% (654)
52.7% (408)
Away
54.8% (639)
54.1% (377)
By Period
Larkin
Carrick
P1
54.4%
51.4%
P2
55.9%
56.6%
P3
55.2%
52.1%
Final 5 min
53.8%
57.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2024 | 3 | 07:45 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 3 | 15:31 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 3 | 06:30 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 2 | 17:02 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 2 | 07:55 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 1 | 18:49 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 1 | 09:15 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |