Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.7% vs 52.2%). Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Carrick 52.1% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Carrick leads 9-9 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 77.9%
Defensive zone
Carrick 74.4%
Neutral zone
Larkin 50.7%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 51.3%
48.7%
51.3%
Larkin
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
9
(18 meetings)
9
9
Larkin
Carrick
Last 10: Larkin 4-6 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
7
0
Larkin
Carrick
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
8
Larkin
Carrick
9 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Larkin
Carrick
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
52.1% (2,513)
-0.4%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
61.3% (75)
-2.8%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
50.7% (430)
-0.5%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Larkin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,416).
Larkin shoots left. Carrick is 52.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,179).
Home / Away
Larkin
Carrick
Home
54.0% (6,238)
51.2% (1,441)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
53.0% (1,577)
By Period
Larkin
Carrick
P1
52.7%
51.8%
P2
53.1%
52.2%
P3
52.1%
52.4%
Final 5 min
53.2%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 06:06 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 3 | 08:39 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 2 | 11:05 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 2 | 09:41 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 2 | 09:36 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 1 | 15:46 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 3 | 06:06 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 2 | 17:40 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 3 | 19:34 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 14, 2024 | 3 | 05:39 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 7, 2024 | 3 | 07:45 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 3 | 15:31 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 3 | 06:30 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 2 | 17:02 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 2 | 07:55 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 1 | 18:49 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 1 | 09:15 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 2 | 04:22 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |