Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Larkin wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.1% vs Aho 51.2% (+3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 55.7%
Defensive zone
Larkin 57.5%
Neutral zone
Larkin 50.8%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 52.4%
47.6%
52.4%
Larkin
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Larkin
Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
2
Larkin
Aho
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (886)
48.5% (778)
+5.1%
Power Play
59.3% (317)
63.4% (191)
-4.1%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (152)
50.8% (65)
-2.1%
On even strength, Larkin has a +5.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Larkin is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (884).
Larkin shoots left. Aho is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (662).
Home / Away
Larkin
Aho
Home
56.6% (700)
51.3% (530)
Away
52.1% (655)
51.4% (504)
By Period
Larkin
Aho
P1
55.4%
50.0%
P2
54.7%
51.3%
P3
52.7%
52.1%
OT
59.1%
66.7%
Final 5 min
57.0%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.4%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
51.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2023 | 3 | 06:36 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 2 | 05:52 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 2 | 05:44 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 1 | 14:06 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |